Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.109184 0.124821 0.141806 0.161614 0.184067 0.208716 0.237817
2026-01-25 0.084044 0.104146 0.127688 0.157248 0.193327 0.235888 0.289862
2026-02-01 0.064539 0.086206 0.113414 0.149986 0.197755 0.257922 0.339343
2026-02-08 0.051322 0.073613 0.103515 0.146375 0.206028 0.285891 0.400675
2026-02-15 0.040905 0.062819 0.094129 0.141832 0.212339 0.312313 0.464349
2026-02-22 0.034869 0.057109 0.090824 0.145211 0.230221 0.357346 0.561006
2026-03-01 0.028265 0.049288 0.083043 0.140586 0.235503 0.384863 0.636339
2026-03-08 0.023305 0.043150 0.076810 0.137284 0.242240 0.415518 0.721198
2026-03-15 0.019358 0.037967 0.071232 0.134065 0.248517 0.446248 0.810756
2026-03-22 0.017104 0.035402 0.069748 0.137708 0.267156 0.500342 0.947926
2026-03-29 0.014709 0.032088 0.066302 0.137128 0.277998 0.542199 1.069405
2026-04-05 0.012994 0.029802 0.064422 0.139212 0.294156 0.595965 1.220528
2026-04-12 0.011523 0.027805 0.062913 0.142098 0.313009 0.658797 1.400882
2026-04-19 0.009586 0.024366 0.057757 0.136441 0.313469 0.685623 1.514082
2026-04-26 0.007852 0.021017 0.052168 0.128816 0.308459 0.700573 1.605317
2026-05-03 0.006639 0.018672 0.048433 0.124749 0.310702 0.731309 1.735244
2026-05-10 0.005597 0.016529 0.044766 0.120162 0.310965 0.757752 1.859810
2026-05-17 0.005047 0.015593 0.043946 0.122508 0.328346 0.825821 2.090190
2026-05-24 0.004290 0.013887 0.040776 0.118190 0.328379 0.853096 2.228155
2026-05-31 0.003696 0.012518 0.038247 0.115105 0.331069 0.887227 2.388030
2026-06-07 0.003195 0.011313 0.035933 0.112174 0.333666 0.921513 2.553451
2026-06-14 0.002939 0.010838 0.035660 0.115078 0.352870 1.001384 2.848335
2026-06-21 0.002616 0.010054 0.034292 0.114464 0.361977 1.055855 3.083681